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China's Big Three Airlines May See Better Margins in 2019

Fitch Ratings expects China's 'Big Three' state-owned airlines to benefit from to greater efficiency, a potentially lower oil price, and moves by the regulator to assist the airlines in trimming operating costs. These factors, together with robust revenue passenger kilometre (RPK) growth as the Civil Administration of China's (CAAC) expects, could help the Big Three record better margins in 2019.

bloomberg radio

No Quick Fix Likely on Trade

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, Fitch Ratings, joined Rishaad Salamat and Doug Krizner on Daybreak Asia. He says we are firmly in escalation mode on trade. He goes onto the potential impact for his forecast on China’s growth and how China may respond.

Operational Risk May Further Pressure Australian Bank Ratings

Addressing shortcomings in operational risk frameworks remains a significant challenge facing many Australian banks and may ultimately pressure the Outlook and ratings on some institutions.

Leverage of Chinese Listed Companies to Rise on Weakening Profits

Chinese listed companies are likely to see higher leverage in 2019 due to slowing economic growth. Rising leverage in the private sector will be mostly driven by softer operating cash flow due to weaker top-line growth and margin contraction, despite lower capex.

Fitch Ratings & KangaNews

Investor Fears Escalate About Australia's Falling House Prices

Falling house prices pose the most serious threat to Australian credit markets over the next 12 months, according to Australian fixed-income investors. The vast majority (95%) of investors expect house prices to keep falling over the next 12 months.

ReportAustralian Fixed-Income Investor Survey 2Q19

Indonesian Tower Companies to Benefit from Rising Data

Indonesian tower companies are likely to demonstrate faster demand-driven growth in 2019, as rising data demand spurs telecom companies (telcos) to seek expansion and strengthening of their networks.

Fitch & KangaNews

Rising Fears About Falling House Prices

Falling house prices pose the most serious threat to Australian credit markets over the next 12 months, according to Australian fixed-income investors. Fitch Ratings and KangaNews' 2Q19 survey reveals that 70% of fixed-income investors rank a domestic housing-market downturn as the top risk to local credit markets, with a notable shift in sentiment. The survey was undertaken in partnership with KangaNews - a specialist publishing house that provides commentary on fixed-income markets in Australia and New Zealand.

Watch video about Investor Fears Escaluate About Australia's Falling House Price

China's Renewable Consumption Target Policy to Boost Volume and Enhance Returns

China's newly announced Renewable Power Consumption Target Policy will help to enhance the sector's volume visibility by specifying a target renewable-power consumption percentage for each province. Meanwhile, grid-parity projects could get additional income from selling green certificates. 

Milken Institute Global Conference 2019

The Macroeconomic Outlook: A Balancing Act

James McCormack, global head of sovereign and supranational ratings, addresses how China’s current stimulus package is gaining traction despite Asia’s mixed economic environment at the 2019 Milken Institute Global Conference.

Honda, Toyota to Benefit from China's Auto Market Recovery

Honda and Toyota are well-positioned to benefit from the eventual automotive market recovery in China due to their strong product line-ups and reputations for offering reliable cars at competitive prices. The companies' solid new energy vehicles' platforms enhance their ability to compete in the country.

Korea Grapples with Trade Tensions, Risks to Growth

A slowing global economy and weak domestic investment have caused a deceleration in South Korea's economy. A weak first quarter, and escalating global trade tensions, present risks to our 2019 growth forecast, but there are signs that the slowdown is bottoming out. 

why forum

The Infrastructure Footrace: Why Australia is Way Ahead

Many governments around the world tout their infrastructure credentials, promoting their plans to increase spending but the degree of success is mixed, writes David Cook, Director, Global Infrastructure at Fitch Ratings. So what’s driving the ongoing robust investment in the Australian infrastructure sector?

Fitch Ratings Exclusive Interview with South Korean Deputy Prime Minister

Fitch Ratings’ Head of APAC Sovereigns Stephen Schwartz speaks with South Korean Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Hong Nam-ki in a three part interview which includes South Korea’s economic prospects and challenges; relations with North Korea and China; and the commitment to improve corporate governance such as the reform the country’s powerful industrial conglomerates or Chaebol.

Part 1: South Korean Deputy Prime Minister on the Economy
Part 2: South Korean Deputy Prime Minister on North Korea and China
Part 3: South Korean Deputy Prime Minister on Labour and Governance Policy
Korea Grapples with Trade Tensions, Risks to Growth

Trade War May Further Erode US Agribusiness Soybean Demand

Escalating US-China trade tensions combined with last year's outbreak of African Swine Fever and availability of South American oilseeds will likely erode Chinese demand for US soybeans in 2019. Farmer profitability will be negatively affected and commodity price volatility will increase.

Japanese, Korean Car Makers' Earnings Challenged by Trade Wars, Disruptive Technology

Earnings announcements from Japanese and Korean car manufacturers reflect a solid operating performance, but there are greater risks to the downside in light of ongoing trade frictions, softer demand in key markets such as the US and China, and the need for greater investment in new energy vehicles and new forms of mobility.

Indonesian Telco Recovery, Data Monetisation Underway

Quarterly revenue and EBITDA for these companies rose at a respective 3% and 4% yoy on average in 1Q19, the sector's first since the full implementation of Indonesia's SIM registration in May 2018. Fitch expects the growth to accelerate in the next two quarters; we forecast a mid-single-digit rebound in mobile revenue this year.

Focus on South Korean Insurers' Alternative Investment Risks

Fitch regards alternative investments to be different from traditional fixed-income securities, varying in liquidity and having credit/counterparty characteristics with lower transparency.

BMW, Daimler Most at Risk of US Tariff Rise, China Reprisal

BMW's and Daimler's sales are likely to be most affected in the automotive sector were China to increase import tariffs in retaliation for expected higher US tariffs. This could put pressure on earnings and spur the manufacturers to adjust their production bases to align with their end-markets, weighing further on the groups' capex and cash generation in the medium term. 

rating action

Fitch Revises Vietnam's Outlook to Positive; Affirms at 'BB'

The revision of Vietnam's Outlook to Positive from Stable reflects an improving track record of economic management, which is evident in strengthening external buffers from persistent current account surpluses, falling government debt levels, high economic growth rates and stable inflation.

Prolonged Chinese Auto Market Slowdown Could Affect Ratings

A prolonged Chinese auto market slump combined with structural trends reshaping the industry could affect the ratings of Jaguar Land Rover, Ford and General Motors. But a decline in Chinese new vehicle sales for only one to two years would be unlikely to trigger immediate downgrades.

Remediation Costs to Continue to Weigh on Australian Major Banks' Earnings

We expect earnings and profitability headwinds to persist for Australia's four major banks over 2019 as a result of slowing credit growth, contracting margins, weakening credit environment and the imposition of regulatory and customer remediation costs.

Fitch Ratings Voted Best Agency for Chinese USD Bonds in 3 Categories

Fitch Ratings has been voted the "Outstanding Rating Agency for Chinese Companies' USD Bonds" in three categories by users of Wall Street Trader, a financial web application widely used by participants in China's debt capital markets. 

China Private Education Blue Book

Revenue growth in China's private education sector, which consists of private schools and private education service providers, is likely to moderate to high-single-digits, from the low-teens.


Other Blue Books

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Fitch Named Best Rating Agency in APAC in Record 5 Categories

Fitch has won the Credit Rating Agency of the Year (2018) awards for the corporate, investment-grade, public-finance, project-finance and sovereign categories. It is the agency's first award for the investment-grade category, and the fourth consecutive win for public finance.


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