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China's Big Three Airlines May See Better Margins in 2019

Fitch Ratings expects China's 'Big Three' state-owned airlines to benefit from to greater efficiency, a potentially lower oil price, and moves by the regulator to assist the airlines in trimming operating costs. These factors, together with robust revenue passenger kilometre (RPK) growth as the Civil Administration of China's (CAAC) expects, could help the Big Three record better margins in 2019.

bloomberg radio

No Quick Fix Likely on Trade

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, Fitch Ratings, joined Rishaad Salamat and Doug Krizner on Daybreak Asia. He says we are firmly in escalation mode on trade. He goes onto the potential impact for his forecast on China’s growth and how China may respond.

Operational Risk May Further Pressure Australian Bank Ratings

Addressing shortcomings in operational risk frameworks remains a significant challenge facing many Australian banks and may ultimately pressure the Outlook and ratings on some institutions.

rating action

Fitch Downgrades Thomas Cook to 'CCC+'; On Rating Watch Negative

The downgrade reflects the tight liquidity we expect TCG to face towards the end of 2019 should it not sell its airline division or be able to draw on the planned GBP300 million senior secured facility based on the currently agreed mandate letter and term sheet.

Leverage of Chinese Listed Companies to Rise on Weakening Profits

Chinese listed companies are likely to see higher leverage in 2019 due to slowing economic growth. Rising leverage in the private sector will be mostly driven by softer operating cash flow due to weaker top-line growth and margin contraction, despite lower capex.

Tesco's UK Mortgage Exit Reflects Rivalry from Ringfenced Banks

Tesco Bank's exit from the UK mortgage market, announced today, is a sign of the pressure on mortgage margins due to an influx of lending capacity from ringfenced banks. We believe more banks may retreat from the market or increase their exposure to higher-risk mortgages, particularly banks with higher cost bases that are less able to compete on price.

Brazil's Rating Outlook Amid Sluggish Growth & Persistent Fiscal Challenges

Shelly Shetty, Head of Latin American Sovereigns, explains how Brazil’s current sluggish growth and fiscal challenges may inhibit near-term economic growth, but improved debt stabilization and controlled inflation may indicate future recovery.

Global Shadow Banking Growth Increases Systemic Risks

Shadow banking’s ascension may signal growing systemic risks. How shadow banks perform through the next credit cycle will determine whether this more diffuse but less transparent and more lightly regulated construct is more beneficial for the overall financial system versus the prior, more bank-concentrated model.

 

Related Materials
Special Report: Shadow Banking Implications for Financial Stability
Video: 2019 Risks to Watch – Shadow Banking

European Auto ABS Index Stable, but on Worsening Trend

The Fitch 30+ and 60+ Delinquency Indices remained stable in 1Q19, although the overall trend has been of gradually rising arrears since mid-2016, says in its latest index report for the sector.

 

Catch up on our latest webinar:
European Auto ABS 2Q19 Update available here On-demand

Listen Now

Weak Enforcement of UEFA Fair Play Limits Positive Impact

The weak enforcement of the Union of European Football Associations' (UEFA) Financial Fair Play rules limits their positive effects, Fitch Ratings says. However, they are mildly credit positive in the long term as they should encourage all clubs to be more financially stable.

Fitch Ratings & KangaNews

Investor Fears Escalate About Australia's Falling House Prices

Falling house prices pose the most serious threat to Australian credit markets over the next 12 months, according to Australian fixed-income investors. The vast majority (95%) of investors expect house prices to keep falling over the next 12 months.

ReportAustralian Fixed-Income Investor Survey 2Q19

Astro Awani

Axiata-Telenor Talks Highlight Need for Scale in Asia

Janice Chong, Director in Fitch Ratings' Corporates team, discuss with Ibrahim Sani, Business Editor of Astro Awani’s Notepad, key highlights of the proposed merger between Malaysia’s Axiata Group and Norway’s Telenor ASA.

China's Renewable Consumption Target Policy to Boost Volume and Enhance Returns

China's newly announced Renewable Power Consumption Target Policy will help to enhance the sector's volume visibility by specifying a target renewable-power consumption percentage for each province. Meanwhile, grid-parity projects could get additional income from selling green certificates. 

Greek Fiscal Package Accelerates Policy Reversals

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced an array of expansionary measures on 7 May. Some, including lower VAT rates, a cut in corporate income tax, an increase in pension benefits and a scheme to settle outstanding tax and social security payments in instalments, are set to be adopted by Parliament later this month.

Honda, Toyota to Benefit from China's Auto Market Recovery

Honda and Toyota are well-positioned to benefit from the eventual automotive market recovery in China due to their strong product line-ups and reputations for offering reliable cars at competitive prices. The companies' solid new energy vehicles' platforms enhance their ability to compete in the country.

Milken Institute Global Conference 2019

The Macroeconomic Outlook: A Balancing Act

James McCormack, global head of sovereign and supranational ratings, addresses how China’s current stimulus package is gaining traction despite Asia’s mixed economic environment at the 2019 Milken Institute Global Conference.

why forum

The Infrastructure Footrace: Why Australia is Way Ahead

Many governments around the world tout their infrastructure credentials, promoting their plans to increase spending but the degree of success is mixed, writes David Cook, Director, Global Infrastructure at Fitch Ratings. So what’s driving the ongoing robust investment in the Australian infrastructure sector?

Introducing ESG Relevance Scores for Public Finance and Infrastructure

ESG factors generally have a low level of direct impact on public finance and infrastructure credit ratings. However, governance is the most influential ESG risk factor across the overall ratings portfolio. This was driven by public finance issuers, which is not surprising given that factors such as political stability, creditor rights, financial transparency, governance structure, government independence and control of corruption are important considerations in our credit rating process. 
 

Watch the VideoIntroducing ESG Relevance Scores - An Update for Public Finance and Infrastructure

Fitch Ratings Exclusive Interview with South Korean Deputy Prime Minister

Fitch Ratings’ Head of APAC Sovereigns Stephen Schwartz speaks with South Korean Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Hong Nam-ki in a three part interview which includes South Korea’s economic prospects and challenges; relations with North Korea and China; and the commitment to improve corporate governance such as the reform the country’s powerful industrial conglomerates or Chaebol.
 

Part 1: South Korean Deputy Prime Minister on the Economy
Part 2: South Korean Deputy Prime Minister on North Korea and China
Part 3: South Korean Deputy Prime Minister on Labour and Governance Policy
Korea Grapples with Trade Tensions, Risks to Growth

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