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Sovereigns

Global Home > Sovereigns
rating action

Fitch Revises Outlook on Thailand to Positive; Affirms at 'BBB+'

The Outlook revision on Thailand's IDRs reflects increasing confidence that lingering political risks are unlikely to derail sound macroeconomic management. This is demonstrated by the sustained strength of external and public finances over the past several years, which has resulted in greater resilience to macroeconomic and financial shocks. 

rating action

Affirmed: Malaysia at 'A-'; Outlook Stable

Malaysia's ratings balance strong and broad-based medium-term growth with a diversified export base, against high public debt and some lagging structural factors, such as weak governance indicators relative to peers. The latter may gradually improve with ongoing government efforts to enhance transparency and address high-profile corruption cases.

rating action

Fitch Affirms Canada's Ratings at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable

Canada's 'AAA' rating balances structural strengths against relatively high general government indebtedness. The rating draws support from its advanced, well-diversified and high-income economy. Canada's political stability, strong governance and institutional strengths also support the rating. Its overall policy framework remains strong and has delivered steady growth and low inflation. 

rating action

Fitch Affirms Japan at 'A'; Outlook Stable

Japan's ratings balance the strengths of an advanced and wealthy economy, with high governance standards and strong public institutions, against weak medium-term growth prospects and high public debt.

Fed Will Only Cut Rates Once in 2019

The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by less than financial markets expect over the rest of 2019 given robust jobs growth in the US. A 25bp cut now appears probable at either the July or September FOMC meeting but is unlikely to signal the start of a series of interest rate cuts, in contrast to the path currently priced into Fed funds futures markets. 
 

Webinar on Demand

Fitch on Belarus

Fitch Ratings recently hosted a webinar with Erich Arispe, the primary analyst on Belarus, and Paul Gamble, Head of Emerging Europe, in Fitch Ratings’ Sovereigns group. Erich and Paul discuss the key rating drivers on Belarus. Listen to this webinar on-demand now.

rating action

Fitch Revises Malta's Outlook to Positive; Affirms at 'A+'

Fitch expects high economic growth in Malta to be sustained in the medium term, and estimates potential growth at around 4%. With GDP growth of 6.7% in 2018, Malta was the fastest growing economy in the EU. Fitch forecasts GDP growth will remain robust at 5.5% in 2019 and 4.8% in 2020. Malta has raised its GDP per capita from 57% of the EU average in 2008 (at market prices) to 83% in 2018. 

Rating Action

Fitch Downgrades Turkey to 'BB-'; Outlook Negative

The dismissal of the central bank governor Murat Cetinkaya heightens doubts over the authorities' tolerance for a period of sustained below-trend growth and disinflation that Fitch considers consistent with a rebalancing and stabilisation of the economy. It also highlights a deterioration in institutional independence and economic policy coherence and credibility. 

Greece's New Government Targets Growth, Tax Cuts

The advent of a single-party majority government in Greece (BB-/Stable) should help cement the improvement in political stability seen in recent years, Fitch Ratings says. The new government's economic programme includes potentially growth-enhancing reforms, but rebalancing fiscal policy remains a challenge. 
 

rating actions

Fitch Revises Angola's Outlook to Negative; Affirms at 'B'

General government debt continued to rise to 80.2% of GDP in 2018 and Fitch expects a further increase to 83.8% in 2019, well above the current 'B' median of 59.1%. While a stabilisation and decline from 2020 is now our main forecast, upside risks, particularly from further exchange rate depreciation, remain high.

Frontier Vision

Frontier Economies See Lower Interest Rates in 2Q19 Report

A number of frontier economies have seen interest rate cuts in recent months against a backdrop of more accommodative global monetary policy conditions. These include: Angola, Azerbaijan, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Jamaica, Mozambique, Sri Lanka and Tajikistan, as highlighted in Fitch Ratings' latest 'Frontier Vision' slide pack.

global perspectives

What Next in the Trade War?

A sense of optimism has returned to global financial markets, as they take in the expectation of continued accommodation by central banks and the resumption of trade talks between China and the US. While President Trump’s capacity to surprise and his tendency to interject directly make the eventual outcome of the trade negotiations difficult to predict, there are four developments investors should be prepared to encounter. This edition of Global Perspectives was published exclusively first by The Straits Times.

Italy Avoids EDP, but Tensions Will Return

Italy's (BBB/Negative) avoidance of the EU's Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) shows that the government remains engaged with the EU's fiscal processes, Fitch Ratings says. But the nature of any fiscal adjustment in 2020 remains unclear, and tensions with the European Commission are likely to resurface. 

Western European Sovereign Rating Trend Stabilised in 1H19

Rating momentum for western European sovereign has stabilised in 2019, with no upgrades or downgrades in the first half of the year, Fitch Ratings says. Three countries - Austria, Finland and Portugal - are on Positive Outlook. Italy and San Marino are on Negative Outlook and the UK is on Rating Watch Negative (RWN).

Fixed Interests Podcast

Sub-Saharan African Debt

Tony Stringer, Managing Director, Global Sovereigns and Ed Parker, Head of EMEA Sovereign Ratings discuss Sub-Saharan African (SSA) debt, noting government debt/GDP has risen steeply in SSA, with the median of 19 Fitch-rated sovereigns doubling since 2012 to 56% at end-2018. Fitch believes that SSA sovereigns have used some of the fiscal space afforded by the Highly Indebted Poor Countries initiative to boost investment, GDP growth and human development.

rating action

Affirmation: Sweden at 'AAA', Outlook Stable

Public finances remain a strong support to Sweden's 'AAA' rating. The general government fiscal balance and debt ratios at +0.9% and 38.8% of GDP respectively, compare favourably against the median fiscal deficit (-0.2%) and higher median debt ratio (44.4%) of 'AAA' category peers. 

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