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Sovereigns

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Fitch Affirms Brazil at 'BB-'; Outlook Stable

Brazil's ratings are constrained by the structural weaknesses in its public finances and high government indebtedness, weak growth prospects, a difficult political environment and corruption-related issues that have weighed on effective economic policymaking and hampered progress on reforms.

Brazil's Rating Outlook Amid Sluggish Growth & Persistent Fiscal Challenges

Shelly Shetty, head of Latin American Sovereigns, explains how Brazil’s current sluggish growth and fiscal challenges may inhibit near-term economic growth, but improved debt stabilization and controlled inflation may indicate future recovery.

Greek Fiscal Package Accelerates Policy Reversals

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced an array of expansionary measures on 7 May. Some, including lower VAT rates, a cut in corporate income tax, an increase in pension benefits and a scheme to settle outstanding tax and social security payments in instalments, are set to be adopted by Parliament later this month.

rating action

Affirmed: Ireland at 'A+'; Outlook Stable

Ireland's sovereign ratings are supported by strong institutions and income per capita among the highest in the 'A' category, even after adjusting for the impact of multinational enterprises on national accounts data. These factors are balanced by still elevated levels of public and private debt, and external vulnerabilities. 

rating action

Fitch Affirms Slovakia at 'A+'; Outlook Stable

Slovakia's 'A+' ratings reflect its relatively sound macro-economic performance, competitive exports, stable FDI and EU capital inflows, and EU and eurozone membership. The rating is constrained by relatively high net external debt, weaker structural indicators compared with peers, relatively high concentration in a single (automobile manufacturing) sector, and high, albeit slowing, household credit growth.

Sri Lanka Bombings Increase Economic, External Risks; IMF Key

The tragic Easter bombings in Sri Lanka will result in lower economic growth this year and could increase external financing pressures. These pressures are mitigated by the government's continued adherence to economic policies and targets that have enabled Sri Lanka to get its IMF programme back on track. 

Fitch Ratings Exclusive Interview with South Korean Deputy Prime Minister

Fitch Ratings’ Head of APAC Sovereigns Stephen Schwartz speaks with South Korean Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Hong Nam-ki in a three part interview which includes South Korea’s economic prospects and challenges; relations with North Korea and China; and the commitment to improve corporate governance such as the reform the country’s powerful industrial conglomerates or Chaebol.
 

Part 1: South Korean Deputy Prime Minister on the Economy
Part 2: South Korean Deputy Prime Minister on North Korea and China
Part 3: South Korean Deputy Prime Minister on Labour and Governance Policy
Korea Grapples with Trade Tensions, Risks to Growth

rating action

Affirmed: Uzbekistan at 'BB-'; Outlook Stable

The authorities remain committed to greater exchange rate flexibility and a reduction in inflation, after earlier liberalisation of the FX market. However, monetary policy effectiveness is constrained by the high level of financial dollarisation (37.4% of deposits and 56.5% of credit), high share of public-funded credit below market rates (50% of outstanding loans), underdeveloped local capital markets and the short track record of the new policy framework. 

rating action

Fitch Affirms Romania at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable

Romania's investment-grade ratings are supported by moderate levels of government debt, and GDP per capita and human development indicators that are above 'BBB' category peers. These are balanced against twin budget and current accounts deficits, net external indebtedness that is higher than its rating peers and pro-cyclical fiscal policy that poses risks to macroeconomic stability.

South Africa Election Highlights Reform Constraints

The apparent victory of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa's general election is consistent with our view that a major economic policy shift is unlikely. However, the drop in ANC support since 2015 highlights rising disaffection, meaning reform efforts will remain gradual and pressure for more populist policies could increase.

Milken Institute Global Conference 2019 - The Macroeconomic Outlook: A Balancing Act

James McCormack, global head of sovereign and supranational ratings, addresses how China’s current stimulus package is gaining traction despite Asia’s mixed economic environment at the 2019 Milken Institute Global Conference.

rating action

Fitch Revises Vietnam's Outlook to Positive; Affirms at 'BB'

The revision of Vietnam's Outlook to Positive from Stable reflects an improving track record of economic management, which is evident in strengthening external buffers from persistent current account surpluses, falling government debt levels, high economic growth rates and stable inflation.

rating action

Affirmed: Maldives at 'B+'; Outlook Stable

The 'B+' rating balances the Maldives' strong GDP growth, high government revenue generated by a prosperous tourism sector and some favourable structural indicators, such as per capita GDP, against a high government debt burden and low foreign-reserve buffers. The strong dependence on tourism leaves the country vulnerable to shocks that could undermine prospects for the industry.

Webinar

¡Fitch on Mexico! - PEMEX. Governance. AMLO. Regulation.

Now Available On-Demand

Fitch Ratings presented a live webcast of its panel discussion in New York with senior analysts from the Latin America group to discuss the economic prospects and challenges that Mexico faces in 2019. Topics of discussion include an overview on the macroeconomic backdrop, government support of PEMEX, and the various credit factors affecting the corporate, banking and non-bank financial sectors. 

 

Listen Now

rating action

Fitch Affirms Cote d'Ivoire at 'B+'; Outlook Stable

Cote d'Ivoire's IDRs are supported by strong economic growth, continued macroeconomic stability and low inflation. This is balanced against low governance and development indicators, two debt defaults since 1999, elevated GDP volatility relative to rating peers and high dependence on agricultural commodities.

rating action

Serbia Affirmed at 'BB'; Outlook Stable

Serbia's 'BB' rating reflects governance and human development indicators that compare favourably with the peer group medians, and the IMF Policy-Coordination Instrument provides a near-term policy anchor for further strengthening of macroeconomic fundamentals and reduction in public debt. 

Contacts

James McCormack

Global

James McCormack

Analytical Group Head

+44 20 3530 1286

Tony Stringer

Global

Tony Stringer

Analytical Chief Operating Officer

+44 20 3530 1219

Jose Santos

Global

Jose Santos

Business Group Head

+34 93 323 9044

Brian Coulton

Economics

Brian Coulton

Analytical

+44 20 3530 1140

Sing Chan Ng

APAC

Sing Chan Ng

Business

+65 6796 7210

Stephen Schwartz

APAC

Stephen Schwartz

Analytical

+852 2263 9938

Ed Parker

EMEA

Ed Parker

Analytical

+44 20 3530 1176

Claire Dopson

EMEA

Claire Dopson

Business

+44 203 530 1405

Paul Gamble

Emerging Europe

Paul Gamble

Analytical

+44 20 3530 1623

Jan Friederich

Middle East & Africa

Jan Friederich

Analytical

+852 2263 9910

Shelly Shetty

Latin America

Shelly Shetty

Analytical

+1 212 908 0324

Diego Alcazar

Latin America

Diego Alcazar

Business

+1 212 908 0396

Charles Seville

North America

Charles Seville

Analytical

+1 212 908 0277

Michele Napolitano

Western Europe

Michele Napolitano

Analytical

+44 20 3530 1623

Arnaud Louis

Global

Arnaud Louis

Analytical

Supranationals

+33 144 299 142

Frank Laurents

North America

Frank Laurents

Investor Outreach

+1 212 908 9127

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